Patterico's Pontifications

1/3/2008

Fox News calls Iowa (Updated-Final)

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 6:33 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

Fox News says Huckabee and Obama are the winners in Iowa.

UPDATE 1 @ 6:45 PM PST – CNN agrees, as does NBC/MSNBC.

UPDATE 2 @ 6:50 PM PST – Here’s something interesting from MSNBC:

“In interviews as they entered the caucuses, more than half of all the Republicans said they were either born-again or evangelical Christians, and they liked Huckabee more than any of his rivals. Romney led handily among the balance of the Iowa Republican voters, according to the survey.

About half the Democratic caucus-goers said a candidate’s ability to bring about needed change was the most important factor as they made up their minds, according to voters surveyed by The Associated Press and the television networks as they entered the caucuses. Change was Obama’s calling card in the arduous campaign for Iowa’s backing. Fewer voters cited experience, which Clinton said was her strong suit, or a candidate’s chance of capturing the White House or ability to care about people like the voters themselves.”

UPDATE 3 @ 7:00 PST – The Des Moines Register reports high turnout delayed some Republican and Democratic caucuses.

UPDATE 4 @ 7:30 PM PST – From the Des Moines Register:

Democrats (1,688 of 1,781 precincts – 95 percent)

Barack Obama – 37 percent
John Edwards – 30 percent
Hillary Clinton – 29 percent
Bill Richardson – 2 percent

GOP (1,361 of 1,781 precincts – 76 percent)

Mike Huckabee 30,852 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 22,973 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 12,289 – 14 percent
John McCain 12,109 – 13 percent

UPDATE 5 @ 7:45 PM PST – [I wonder why the Des Moines Register gives raw numbers on its summary page for Republicans but not for Democrats? -- DRJ]

Democrats (1,688 of 1,781 precincts – 97 percent)

Barack Obama – 38 percent
John Edwards – 30 percent
Hillary Clinton – 29 percent
Bill Richardson – 2 percent

GOP (1,393 of 1,781 precincts – 78 percent)

Mike Huckabee 31,508 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 23,682 – 25 percent
John McCain 12,520 – 13 percent
Fred Thompson 12,484 – 13 percent

UPDATE 6 @ 8:00 PM PST – The Des Moines Register posts these updated Republican numbers:

“GOP (1,522 of 1,781 precincts – 85 percent)

Mike Huckabee 35,257 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 25,995 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,786 – 13 percent
John McCain 13,473 – 13 percent”

UPDATE 7 @ 8:15 PM PST – Fox News is running a banner with an *unconfirmed* report that Democrat Chris Dodd is dropping out of the Presidential race. *** Dodd has officially dropped out.

UPDATE 8 @ 8:17 PM PST – More from the Des Moines Register:

“Democrats (1,745 of 1,781 precincts – 98 percent)

Barack Obama – 38 percent
John Edwards – 30 percent
Hillary Clinton – 29 percent
Bill Richardson – 2 percent

GOP (1,525 of 1,781 precincts – 86 percent)

Mike Huckabee 35,342 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 26,067 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,805 – 13 percent
John McCain 13,509 – 13 percent”

UPDATE 9 @ 9:10 PM PST – This GOP update from the Des Moines Register shows third place is still up-for-grabs:

“GOP (1,546 of 1,781 precincts – 87 percent)

Mike Huckabee 35,621 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 26,524 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 13,932 – 13 percent
John McCain 13,693 – 13 percent”

UPDATE 10 @ 9:15 PM PST – Final Democratic numbers [I've added the raw numbers in brackets. -- DRJ]:

“Democrats (1,781 of 1,781 precincts – 100 percent)

Barack Obama [93,951] – 38 percent
John Edwards [74,377] – 30 percent
Hillary Clinton [73,666] – 29 percent
Bill Richardson [5,278] – 2 percent
Joe Biden [2,329] – 1 percent
Uncommitted [345] – 0 percent
Chris Dodd [58] – 0 percent
Mike Gravel [0] – 0 percent
Dennis Kucinich [0] – 0 percent”

UPDATE 11 @ 9:30 PM PST – One more GOP update:

“GOP (1,661 of 1,781 precincts – 93 percent)

Mike Huckabee 38,605 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 28,367 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 15,044 – 13 percent
John McCain 14,749 – 13 percent”

UPDATE 12 @ 10:20 PM PST – The most recent GOP numbers:

“GOP (1,661 of 1,781 precincts – 93 percent)

Mike Huckabee 38,605 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 28,367 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 15,044 – 13 percent
John McCain 14,749 – 13 percent
Ron Paul 11,232 – 10 percent
Rudy Giuliani 3,853 – 3 percent
Duncan Hunter 499 – 0 percent
Tom Tancredo 5 – 0 percent”

UPDATE @ 10:35 PM PST – Biden is out.

FINAL UPDATE @ 11:59 PM PST – Updated but not complete GOP numbers:

“GOP (1,702 of 1,781 precincts – 96 percent)

Mike Huckabee 39,814 – 34 percent
Mitt Romney 29,405 – 25 percent
Fred Thompson 15,521 – 13 percent
John McCain 15,248 – 13 percent”

Ironically, it looks like the story for Republicans and Democrats isn’t about who won but who came in third.

– DRJ

28 Responses to “Fox News calls Iowa (Updated-Final)”

  1. How do you like your steak cooked, DRJ?

    nk (5221ab)

  2. Well, there’s the first crack in the empress’ veneer of inevitability.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  3. I’ve lost my appetite, NK. It’s hard to watch a state choose people like Edwards, Clinton, and Huckabee. I’m going to go watch some football and hope it restores my faith in America.

    DRJ (29b04b)

  4. It’s not just the register, neither; the NYT is doing the same thing.

    It’s quite peculiar and somewhat confusing.

    aphrael (db0b5a)

  5. DRJ, they didn’t choose Clinton.

    Iowa is not what democracy looks like.

    This is just more fuel for the fire of reorganizing our primary system. Let’s just vote by Federal Appellate Circuit, every other week each circuit’s districts hold their elections. We rotate every four years.

    Simple and obvious. States that do not accept this system loose 75% of their delegates.

    Iowa is proof that we are letting a tiny number of idiots make a horse race of our future.

    Jem (9e390b)

  6. Frankly, they should deduct 5 percentage points for that ridiculous speech of Edwards, sheesh.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  7. I doubt Iowa will loom all that large on the Republican side in a month.

    Obama’s tailwind, though, could pull in a chunk of independent votes in New Hampshire – ones that otherwise might have been McCain’s. He’d be tough to stop with back-to-back wins.

    steve (407249)

  8. This is the media’s wet dream. Now they can have a snake oil salesman like Huck to hold up as their stereotype of the heartland godbotherers.

    JD (90efaf)

  9. If I remember correctly, as CNN described it, the Democratic and Republican parties each use different methods of determining the winners in the Iowa Caucuses, and the Democratic Party method uses percentage rather than actual vote count, which would explain the differences in reporting.

    br (c0f011)

  10. JD, half of ‘em are going to be too busy spinning this as a quasi-victory for Hillary to notice.

    Like Olbermann.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  11. br,

    That may be true but it’s still interesting because the Des Moines Register has included the raw numbers for Democrats at the county-by-county breakdown.

    DRJ (29b04b)

  12. Somewhat surprisingly:

    Democratic turnout: 232,000

    Republican turnout: 93,000

    steve (407249)

  13. In a month no one will care that Huckabee won Iowa or Hillary came in third place.

    chaos (9c54c6)

  14. chaos – A month from now, the media will still be trying to tell us that Huckabee is the GOP frontrunner after his heroic effort in Iowa.

    JD (bad43f)

  15. After Huck finishes third – if he even manages that – behind McCain and Thompson in South Carolina I don’t care what the media will be saying.

    chaos (9c54c6)

  16. Where are the important stats? How did Ron Paul do?

    daleyrocks (906622)

  17. The paulbots came in 18th, but they raised $8,000,000 last quarter, and Ron stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

    JD (bad43f)

  18. I included Paul’s numbers in Update 12. He got 10%. In a sense, he’s the biggest story of the night.

    DRJ (29b04b)

  19. DRJ – Why, did he admit to seeing and talking to a UFO?

    daleyrocks (906622)

  20. Sorry but I have *zero* Ron Paul/UFO knowledge.

    DRJ (29b04b)

  21. After Huck finishes third – if he even manages that – behind McCain and Thompson in South Carolina I don’t care what the media will be saying.

    Huckabee is already ahead in SC polls and he’s going to pick up a bandwagon effect there. Heck, I’d expect him to do no worse than third in NH, as Giuliani flops.

    Is there any subject on which you guys are in touch with Planet Earth?

    Andrew J. Lazarus (ba0bdd)

  22. DRJ,

    The numbers the media reports for the Democrats are awarded delegates to the National Convention, not individual votes.

    The Democrats also FORCE supporters of candidates that don’t have 15% of the caucusers in a precinct to move over to candidate suporters that do. There is no secret ballot in the Democrat Caucuses. You have to publicly stand for a candidate and are subject to bullying, intimidation, and sometimes a beating.

    PCD (5c49b0)

  23. “Huckabee Woo’s Hicks” that should be the headline for Iowa. Fueled by ethanol and God Iowans came out with their bibles in one hand and their farm subsidy checks in the other and voted for the big government preacher man who told them a vote for Huckabee is a vote for Jesus.

    Huckabee woo's hicks (9c525d)

  24. 23, Who the heck are you? A sockpuppet? You weren’t there, but I was. Care to make a cogent observation based on facts?

    PCD (5c49b0)

  25. In update 10 you gave raw numbers for the Democrates. Did you calculate these yourself based on percentage of the votes and the number of Democrats who voted? I’m telling you that the numbers are skewed towards 2nd and 3rd place candidates.

    I was in a room (Scott County D33) that was at least 80% in support of Barack Obama. Hillary had enough to get 1 delegate and John Edwards needed 1 more vote just to get the 15% and even be viable. A woman with the Barack Obama group jumped ship and joined the Edwards camp to the suprise of the overwhelming Obama majority. When asked later why she switched to Edwards she said that she didn’t want the Edwards group to be unviable and possibly have some of his group join Hillary’s group and maybe push her over the number to gain another delegate.

    So the numbers that really broke down like this (anyone honest in the room will agree):

    Barack Obama 80%
    Hillary Clinton 12%
    John Edwards 8%

    Get reported like this:

    Barack Obama 60% 3 delegates
    Hillary Clinton 20% 1 delegate
    John Edwards 20% 1 delegate

    I know people from many different precints that say the exact same thing about the vote in their precinct.

    Even the numbers at the Des Moines Register site just tell the delegate count. No one publishes the real numbers! The real numbers are the real story and the reported numbers seriously take away from the winner and are generous to those in 2nd and 3rd place candidates.

    Chex (b58d82)

  26. You guys are all so stupid, and you say that Iowans are? I am NOT a hick. And I know a thing or two about politics. I will not stand for people insulting my state just because I was born here. Don’t be so goddamn coercive, it just makes you all sound so stupid! If you don’t agree with the way Iowans vote, don’t use an ad hominem argument. LIKE I SAID, YOU ARE STUPID! First of all, I am Democrat, okay? I didn’t support Huckabee, but that doesn’t mean that you should make fun of him. I mean, he just dropped out of the race yesterday, but even before that everyone knew (atleast everyone in the right state of mind) the he wasn’t going to win anymore primaries! And he sounded like a really nice guy, he just has the wrong ideas about how to care for our country. So, sorry about this being so long, but I need to get my anger out. AND P.S- I DON’T LIVE ON A FUCKING FARM AND I DON’T THINK VOTING FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IS GOING TO GET ME INTO HEAVEN! We don’t live in the times of indulgences, Martin Luther, and the Reformation, okay?

    Mary (aa8204)

  27. If you don’t agree with the way Iowans vote, don’t use an ad hominem argument. LIKE I SAID, YOU ARE STUPID! First of all, I am Democrat, okay?

    That. Is. Brilliant.

    Pablo (99243e)


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