Patterico's Pontifications

12/2/2007

Russia’s Putin and Venezuela’s Chavez Win(s) [Updated]

Filed under: International — DRJ @ 6:08 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

*Updates bumped to the top*

FINAL UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 10:45 PM PST: The Houston Chronicle reports “Chavez suffers a stunning defeat.” The vote was 51/49 with 90% of the vote in.

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 9:35 PM PST: Caracas Chronicles agrees it’s official: 51% – No; 49% – Yes.

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 10:00 9:00 PM PST: Fox News has posted this Breaking News caption: “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Has Lost Constitutional Vote, Says Electoral Chief.”

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 8:50 PM PST: The Houston Chronicle’s South American Bureau reports the Venezuelan government-controlled National Electoral Council is “mysteriously mum” while opposition leaders were “all smiles and broadly hinting that their side was winning.”

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 8:30 PM PST: The Venezuelan Vice President concedes the reform vote is close.

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 8:00 PM PST: The blogger at Caracas Chronicles reports the constitutional amendments failed. Who knows at this point? Stay tuned.

UPDATE 12/2/2007 @ 7:30 PM PST: In contrast to earlier reports in which Chavez claimed the constitutional amendments had passed, the constitutional changes he supported are now reported to be too close to call:

“The result of Venezuela’s referendum on constitutional changes that would give President Hugo Chavez vast new powers was too close to call, government and opposition leaders said Sunday.
***
The new amendments would give Chavez more control over the armed forces, the economy, the Central Bank and national politics. They also lengthen the presidential period from six to seven years and scrap term limits, a change that the political opposition argues could allow Chavez to govern for decades to come.”

***********************************************

The party of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez and Russian President Vladimir Putin won elections today with over 60% of the vote.

Chavez, who has already announced his intention to run for President for life, is expected to continue moving Venezuela toward a more socialist, anti-American agenda. Putin’s more modest goal is to:

“… give him a ‘moral right’ to mould policy after he leaves the presidency next year. But he has not said what role he will take or whom he favors to succeed him as presidency.”

Chavez and Venezuela pose an interesting problem for the US. Chavez has aligned Venezuelan interests and himself with Cuba’s Castro and Iran’s Ahmadinejad. He is willing to take on the Western powers as evidenced by his claim that President Bush is “the devil” and more recently by his threat to throw Spanish companies out of Venezuela in retaliation for derogatory comments made about him by Spain’s King Juan Carlos I and former PM Aznar.

Russia may be the more powerful nation but Venezuela is much closer to home, poses a threat to area democracy, continues its military buildup, and controls significant regional oil reserves. The US has historically tried to straddle a fence that criticizes and discourages Chavez while trying not to meddle in Venezuelan politics. It’s an admirable tactic but may be doomed to failure as long as Chavez continues to paint the US as the enemy. (See pp. 31-32 at this link for a discussion of US policies and options.)

Multinational corporations like ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, StatOil, Chevron, and TotalFinaElf have dealt with Venezuela for years, only to see their interests nationalized or significantly limited during the past 2 years of the Chavez administration. These companies offered substantial financial resources and were willing to work cooperatively with the Chavez Administration to accomplish their financial goals.

There is very little the US government could offer Chavez and Venezuela in financial benefits that these companies haven’t already offered, ultimately with no success. For that reason, I doubt a diplomatic or financial solution will work. For now, however, this may be the only option the US has.

— DRJ

28 Responses to “Russia’s Putin and Venezuela’s Chavez Win(s) [Updated]”

  1. An embargo and a blockade. Let them drink their oil.

    nk (2e8319)

  2. It is great when democracy actually reflects the wishes of the people as opposed to serving as a fig leaf for US imperial dictates (as in Iraq). LOL!

    ¡Viva la Revolución Bolivariana!
    ¡Viva El Processo!
    ¡Viva Chávez!

    Los amigos americanos de Presidente Chavez y la Revolución en inglés…
    —-
    Americans for Chavez
    http://www.myspace.com/chavista
    http://www.americans-for-chavez.com
    Bolivarian Circle ‘Chief Tierra Blanca’

    Americans for Chavez (770194)

  3. I wonder how many members “Americans for Chavez” has?

    DRJ (a6fcd2)

  4. Viva la cabeza de Chavez en una lanza!

    nk (2e8319)

  5. “… a una lanza!”

    nk (2e8319)

  6. I see no need for an embargo.Chavez won -if indeed he won the vote-by running against something.BUt with his decreasing access to capaital and skilled employees,he’s in a positive feedback cycle that will spin out of control.Without the above,his production will suffer and income will decrease.He’s had the good fortune to have had oil prices increasing to ccover his declining productivity.He’s kind of like an unskilled poker player who periodically hits the slots and enables himself to stay in the game.I’m afraid things will be increasingly bad for Venezuelans

    corwin (6d644c)

  7. DRJ – I’m still hearing a lot of noise about that Venezuelan election result from a number of blog sites. Has there been an official announcement that you’ve seen?

    daleyrocks (906622)

  8. Daleyrocks,

    Thanks for bringing this up. I need to correct the post. Chavez won re-election in 2006 and this vote only covers the constitutional amendments which I did not make clear. While Chavez has claimed victory on the constitutional questions, the official results aren’t in yet.

    DRJ (a6fcd2)

  9. DRJ is correct, the official numbers aren’t in yet, but most indications are favoring a democratic victory for continuing El Processo!

    Americans for Chavez (4ddba0)

  10. A culture that create such monsters should be a warning to us all. It also serves to show us the follies of multiculturalists. All cultures and civilizations are not equal nor even acceptable.

    Thomas Jackson (bf83e0)

  11. Dear Gringo por Chavez:
    If Chavez is that great, why haven’t you moved to Venezuela to participate directly in the Great Bolivaran Cultural Revolution?

    kishnevi (92c33b)

  12. Venezuela referendum too close to call: officials
    Updated Sun. Dec. 2 2007 10:06 PM ET

    CTV.ca News Staff

    The outcome of Venezuela’s referendum on constitutional reforms is still too close to call, government officials said late Sunday. If the vote passes, President Hugo Chavez could potentially rule the country for life.

    “The result of the referendum is close,” vice-president Jorge Rodriguez told reporters from Chavez’s campaign headquarters. “We will respect the result, whatever it is — even it’s by one single vote

    daleyrocks (906622)

  13. Oh, and by the way, if you’re a real Revolutionary, why are you selling T-shirts? Shouldn’t you give them away in the name of the People? And why bother with legal terms and conditions, and insist that site content is your property. After all, the idea of property is so–counter-revolutionary.

    My prediction: Gringos por Chavez is really two college kids flunking out of Freshman Algebra.

    kishnevi (a117ab)

  14. We will respect the result, whatever it is — even it’s by one single vote

    Translation: We will do whatever we need to do to get enough votes thrown out to make sure we win.

    kishnevi (92c33b)

  15. Kishnevi: “If Chavez is that great, why haven’t you moved to Venezuela to participate directly in the Great Bolivaran Cultural Revolution?”

    Working on it as a contributor to Mission Sucre ( http://www.misionsucre.gov.ve/ ).

    Americans for Chavez (4ddba0)

  16. Great, thugs for Chavez have a computer.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  17. I think Chavez is in the process of finding a lot of votes in the rural areas where his support is stronger and fewer people are looking over his peoples’ shoulders.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  18. Chavez must have really lost big time if they haven’t been able to announce a result yet or are still trying to cook the results.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  19. This mope is like Luca Brasi in The Godfather. He is asking for it.

    The Don had proceeded to instruct him. “There are men in this world,” he said, “who go about demanding to be killed. You must have noticed them. They quarrel in gambling games, they jump out of their automobiles in a rage if someone so much as scratches their fender, they humiliate and bully people whose capabilities they do not know. I have seen a man, a fool, deliberately infuriate a group of dangerous men, and he himself without any resources. These are people who wander through the world shouting, ‘Kill me. Kill me.’ And there is always somebody ready to oblige them. We read about it in the newspapers every day. Such people of course do a great deal of harm to others also.

    “Luca Brasi was such a man. But he was such an extraordinary man that for a long time nobody could kill him. Most of these people are of no concern to ourselves but a Brasi is a powerful weapon to be used. The trick is that since he does not fear death and indeed looks for it, then the trick is to make yourself the only person in the world that he truly desires not to kill him. He has only that one fear, not of death, but that you may be the one to kill him. He is yours then.”

    nichevo (1510ce)

  20. DRJ,

    You posted your update as of 10:00pm PST, but it’s only 9:36pm PST as we speak. Any insights into Pay Nay Loron while we’re at it? 🙂

    ras (fc54bb)

  21. ras,

    Thanks for catching that and sorry. I’m on CST and I got confused when I tried to match the update time with Patterico Time. I’ll fix it.

    DRJ (a6fcd2)

  22. DRJ,

    No probs, and thx for making the correction.

    BTW, PST = Patterico Standard Time? He’s a lawyer, so does that mean it’s expensive? I shouldda kept my big mouth shut!

    ras (fc54bb)

  23. Hollywood will be in mourning tomorrow.

    daleyrocks (906622)

  24. Interesting, lets see how much “democracy” the Chavez thugs like.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  25. Wow–that Little Fidel lickspittle sure vanished like a soap bubble when the vote was announced.

    M. Scott Eiland (56ea55)

  26. Por que no te callas?

    nk (2e8319)

  27. Chavez lost. Now how shall the revolution to unseat him proceed?

    Alan Kellogg (5f7ba0)

  28. Una nación que puede preferir deshonra al peligro está preparada para un amo, y merece uno.

    Neo (cba5df)


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