Patterico's Pontifications

8/17/2007

Bullets, Guns and Butter

Filed under: General,Media Bias — DRJ @ 9:57 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

The AP reports that some police departments are running out of training ammunition because of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Amazing, isn’t it? Sixty-plus years after WWII, when the US geared up to produce an array of aircraft carriers, destroyers, planes, tanks, jeeps, and bombs, and now the largest economy in the world can’t manufacture enough bullets.

Could there be any other explanation?

Here are a few thoughts for your consideration:

1. Fewer companies, entrepreneurs or investors want to manufacture ammunition because of liability issues or because it’s a politically incorrect product line like tobacco or alcohol.

2. Some police departments (like Denver) balked at paying higher prices and then placed large orders, resulting in short-term supply imbalances.

3. As noted by Michelle Malkin last month at Hot Air when she asked “Is OSHA trying to outlaw ammunition?,” maybe OSHA has something to do with it.

Whatever the reason, it’s interesting that the AP’s report fits so well with the narrative that this war is bad for America.

51 Responses to “Bullets, Guns and Butter”

  1. I call bs on the AP article. Most of the bullets required by police departments are either 9mm or .40 S&W. Both pistol caliber rounds.

    What’s being expended in Iraq and this country called … hmmm … Afghanistan? are rifle rounds: .223, .308, and yes .50 BMG. Pistols are practically useless in combat zones like Iraq other than last-ditch weapons. They are rarely fired. I seriously doubt the military has used much at all of it’s supply.

    Outside of SWAT no police officer would qualify with the rifle and those rounds.

    More likely: gov’t suppression of pistol ammo manufacturers leads to withdrawal from the market. With very little spare manufacturing capacity.

    Jim Rockford (e09923)

  2. Who believes Western Civilization will actually win the battle against radical islam?

    Christoph (92b8f7)

  3. I too suspect this is primarily BS, but there may be a small grain of truth.

    Law enforcement is exempt from the 11% Federal excise tax on ammunition but processing this exemption is something of a PITA as it adds additional paperwork and records keeping requirements for just about everyone involved in the transaction.

    Manufacturers, wholesalers and distributors all will find excuses to avoid these types of sales. When the market is tight LE sales are often the first to get kicked to the curb or at least placed on a back burner.

    Plus, the reports say it’s only a shortage of practice ammo. Granted, most of the LEOs I’ve seen shoot can use all the practice they can get, but no one is saying that this situation has had any adverse impact on supplies of duty ammo.

    ThomasD (9e8a29)

  4. I second the comments re 9mm and .40S&W pistol rounds vs. 5.56, etc. As a handloader of rifle ammo, mostly .20 and .22 caliber, I can say from experience that there’s been a huge decrease in the availability of primers…and essential ingredient for ammunition. Whether the war is the reason or not, I don’t know, but it might be. Just a thought.

    George Walker (c77c9e)

  5. Most likely the ammunition plants have fewer production lines than product lines. So it’s quite likely that pruduction lines that might have been making .223 only part time in the past are making it fulltime right now, forcing other things to get less made.

    And isn’t the standard sidearm in the US military a 9mm right now anyways?

    Skip (b45646)

  6. This was on the local news last night and I call BS also. 25 years ago the dept had a fairly intricate reloader at the range and we could shoot as much as we wanted to. Are all PDs using factory ammo for practice? The report I saw said .223 was one of the calibers that was running short, but again this was for practice, and it indicated every officer had to be proficient with that rifle, which is something I don’t understand. Since when did every officer start carrying a M-16 or Mini-14?

    buzz (e09efa)

  7. You ought to see the wait and price increase for 9mm, .45 acp, and 5.56 ammo right now. Even in 25k lots. No, most departments don’t reload anymore but if this keeps up I expect some to start again.

    Buzzy (9d4680)

  8. For those bullet manufacturers that are on government contract, the ‘war supply rules’ were put into effect a few years ago. The US Armed Forces had to buy bullets from France, Germany and a few other NATO Nations while the government exercised its war emergency contract powers on those that had pre-existing contracts. The effect for those companies is that *all* US government contracts for the Armed Forces are met *first*.

    Having come from DoD I know those contract clauses and when they are exercised you either meet them or the government comes in to run things…

    That said the civilian and police ammo suppliers tend to be different companies. There is some cross-over, yes, but not enough to cause this sort of problem three *years* after the contract clauses have been exercised. If those with government supply contracts cannot make money enough to open other production facilities at this point in time, they, literally, will not be around much longer. Gross negligence on the part of businesses would not even begin to describe that.

    So those that are asking higher prices are either: a) incompetent (do you really want to buy ammo from such a producer?), b) running such thin margins they have almost no other production capacity left, or, my favorite, c) price gouging.

    In 2004 you might see a or b. In 2007? Nuh-uh. There is a lot of 9mm handguns going to the police forces being stood up, but there are great suppliers in Europe far better and closer and cheaper to Iraq and Afghanistan to meet those needs. And just what *is it* with the NATO suppliers, anyways? I do hope they are upping their production to help out as we will do this thing known as ‘pay for ammo’.

    Price gouging. Yeah, that fits.

    ajacksonian (87eccd)

  9. Has anyone been studying Demand vs. Supply?

    Has the price of the rounds in question ratcheted up?

    One stand-up comedian (half seriously) suggested that gun availability and the relationship to violent crime could be controlled by making each
    bullet cost $2000. That way, some would think a little longer before they spend 2 grand on some
    punk worth less than 2 cents.

    Semanticleo (4741c2)

  10. I saw this somewhere else last night (don’t remember where,it’s the demon rum’s fault!) but a commenter Googled the reporter’s name & came up with all the articles he/she’d written & everyone was anti-war/Bush/US etc…

    Frantic Freddie (f1504c)

  11. The article is half nonsense. You can find ammo easily at any gun store, gun show, at some Walmarts, and mail ordered from any number of sites, magazines, and companies around the world. Just Google “ammunition” or the specific caliber you are looking for and dozens of site will come up. The prices aren’t all that bad. More expensive than 5 years ago certainly, but claiming they can’t train because of lack of ammo or expense is pure propaganda. One thousand rounds of 9mm costs $145.80, .40 cal costs about $219.95 for
    one thousand rounds. .223 ammo for AR-15 or the military M-4 costs about $329.00 a thousand rounds on the civilian market. Bulk is cheaper. This is probably a tight budget priorities more than anything else. When haven’t local police forces had to scrape by on insufficient money?

    Lance Fairchok (fe4bff)

  12. are the bad guys running out of ammo too?

    assistant devil's advocate (08a665)

  13. are the bad guys running out of ammo too?

    If they are, they’re not showing it.

    Paul (f54101)

  14. What you have here is a question of manufacturing capacity. A machine can produce either pistol or rifle amumnition, it can’t produce both. And converting from one to the other takes time. At the moment ammunition manufacturers are focusing on rifle ammunition, thus slighting pistol ammunition. For the situation to ease ammunition manufacturers will have to ramp up production, and that means investment in new plant.

    Alan Kellogg (8140bb)

  15. GAO report, July 2005:

    Following the end of the Cold War, the Department of Defense (DOD) significantly reduced its purchases of small and medium caliber ammunition and reduced the number of government-owned plants that produce small and medium caliber ammunition. Since 2000, however, DOD’s requirements for these types of ammunition have increased notably.

    The market got tight, now it’s expanding again.

    Glen Wishard (b1987d)

  16. Maybe part of the explanation is that the gang bangers are buying it up. ABC news reports that police shootings in LA are up 38% this year, many of them ambushes against cops responding to a call. That’s not crime, that’s war.

    Just destroying the institutions that Americans won’t!

    Patricia (824fa1)

  17. Wait a minute, aren’t military catridges produced at military arsenals? Indeed the article mentions that is the case. So if all the military ammo is produced by government plants how would that affect civilian supply which is produced at separate civilian plants. It does not compute.

    I doubt there is much demand for FMJ ammo in the civilian or police world either.

    Agesilaus (edd02b)

  18. Agesilaus –

    The government doesn’t make all of its own ammunition. It makes about one third of it, and the trend is toward more privatization.

    Glen Wishard (b1987d)

  19. And how will our cops have guns if some greedy big city mayor is trying to sue the gun makers into bankruptsy to line his own pockets

    krazy kagu (fa81b9)

  20. Agesilaus –

    In addition, the government supplies surplus ammunition to Civilian Marksmanship Programs, where a lot of cops do their practice shooting. That would account for a decline in the amount of practice ammo available.

    Glen Wishard (b1987d)

  21. One must also remember that it takes some things to make ammo (gunpowder, lead, copper and brass).

    While the various grades of gunpowder are niche raw materials for a niche product (ammo), the remaining raw materials are in demand from other industries. Does anyone remember that China and India are consuming vast quantities of raw materials. Following the advise of Uncle Milton Friedman, an increase in demand crates higher prices and scarcity.

    David in San Diego (732bef)

  22. There’s a good post over at Ace of Spades butressing David in San Diego’s point.

    Paul (f54101)

  23. The war has been on for years, as we are often reminded by the left. If it was a shortage issue due to an abrupt increase in demand, the shock would have been felt 3-4 years ago with the situation getting better by today.

    If there’s a problem today, its from other factors.

    jpm100 (d5518b)

  24. As David implies/points out, prices on gunpowder, lead, and copper alloys (i.e., brass), and thus on ammunition, would be up considerably (about doubled in the past couple years) even without a war.

    Gunpowder prices track those of fertilizer, as the two are made with the same feedstock (nitrate compounds). And fertilizer is up with energy prices (production is energy intensive) and with this year’s plantings of corn, and corn prices. Copper and lead tend to track other nonferrous metals. All are similarly up, due to global supply/demand and energy prices, which is almost entirely unrelated to ammunition production.

    DWPittelli (d6598e)

  25. Paul…huh?

    From the AP story(and the original post here):
    The increasingly voracious demand for copper and lead overseas, especially in China, has also been a factor.

    From the story you linked to at Ace’s:
    What the AP neglects to state is that, fueled by China’s and other developing nation’s voracious appetites for copper, brass, and lead, the price of those metals worldwide has tripled over the past few years.

    Scary dumb.

    alphie (015011)

  26. The scarcity of resources to make ammunition makes sense but does that completely explain this subject? Either:

    (1) Ammo is available but it costs more than some want to pay, or

    (2) Manufacturers have cut back on production due to high material costs.

    I suspect the answer is more likely to be (1) than (2), if only because there doesn’t seem to be a nationwide shortage. All types of ammo are available in my area, and the articles on this subject quote many police departments as saying there is no shortage.

    DRJ (bfe07e)

  27. There is plenty of ammunition available, although as some have mentioned above, the law enforcement only supplies that are exempt from some taxation and so are packaged differently can run a bit short especially in competition with army contracts.

    Some of this silliness came from the Army trying to convert to tungsten bullets to address exaggerated concerns about lead at rifle ranges. Since tungsten is a heavy metal with its own toxicity concerns, this was a silly move.

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  28. Staunch Brayer:

    Your reading comprehension needs some work. What part of the second statement you quoted is missing from the first?

    the price of those metals worldwide has tripled over the past few years.

    That statement and observation was made by the guest poster at Ace, not the AP.

    The fact that you missed that distinction is scary dumb.

    Paul (f54101)

  29. As a firearms dealer, and active participant in the shooting sports, I can assure you that the price (both wholesale and retail) for ammo has been steadily increasing since at least 2005.

    As a quick indicator, 7.62 X 39 ammo for SKS/AK weapons has gone from less than $85/M, to $195/M (J&G Sales, Shotgun News, 8/10/07).

    AS has been noted earlier, the prices of raw materials world-wide, have been steadily climbing due to the increased world-wide demand, particularly in India and China. Making ammo is not a particularly large enterprise in the scale of things, and therefore, does not have first call on these commodities.

    Another point: in ’04 or ’05, the DoD was forced to go overseas for acquisition of small-arms ammo (9mm, .223, .308, and .50BMG) due to all production lines in the U.S. (both Gov’t. and private) running at 100%. A Contract for a couple BILLION rounds was let to Israeli Military Industries (IMI).

    Yes, cops have to practice with .223 ammo, because they have to maintain proficiency with the M-16 and M-4 weapons. These are now in wide-spread usage outside of SWAT units thanks to the GWOT and the North Hollywood shoot-out (where LAPD cops had to go to a local gunstore to get civilian AR-15’s to level the playing field – those AR’s would not be available today since all AR/AK type weapons are banned to civilian ownership under the State’s Assault Weapons Law).

    As a general point: At the end of all previous conflicts in our history, we have tended to dismantle those “arsenal of democracy” production lines as not needed in a now safe world. And, we have always had to ramp them up again when the boogie-man came banging again at the door. We did the same thing at the end of the Cold War – the cut-backs were devestating to the manufacturing sector here in SoCal as Defense/AeroSpace retrenched in the early 90’s.

    Unfortunately, in each cycle, we lose the human capital that these industries need as people with the knowledge retire, move into something else, or die. Plus, as society as a whole (read MSM) frowns upon the shooting sports (hunting, target shooting, etc.) as worthwhile activities, why would an entrepreneur risk his capital in a dying industry? For, when the Gov’t. market dries up, there won’t be enough of a civilian market to support more than a VERY few companies.

    Another Drew (a28ef4)

  30. Addendum…
    “the largest economy in the world can’t manufacture enough bullets.”

    FMJ bullets require a lead core, and a copper jacket. Lead and copper, two commodities whose price has skyrocketed.

    But then, you have to make the rest of the cartridge: The brass casing (brass is an alloy of copper), the powder (derived from Nitrates, which is seeing its’ own price increases), and the primer (see all of above).

    Also, primers are considered to be Hazardous Cargo when shipped by themselves, and require special handling (read, it costs more to ship them).

    But, I guess we should be down-on-our-knees grateful that the Great White Father in Washington hasn’t decided to take away all of our recreational pursuits. We can always go deep-see fishing (Oops, except along the Channel Islands – now another sanctuary for what-ever). Or, we can go hiking, except don’t go off the trail and step on that endangered plant/mouse/etc.

    I think we were a lot better off when Congressmen were ignored, and they paid us a bounty for coyotes.

    Another Drew (a28ef4)

  31. Good comment, Another Drew. I ran across a link to Congressional testimony about a 1953-era artillery and ammunition shortage that fits with what you say.

    It still surprises me that, if prices and shortages are as high as these interviews suggest, why hasn’t someone increased production? That makes me wonder if the shortages or prices are really that excessive.

    DRJ (bfe07e)

  32. Two questions:

    If demand is high and supply is low, what stock should we buy?

    How do we know that PETA isn’t threatening a class-action suit against ammo manufacturers on behalf of the deer population which has put fear into the industry?

    AD, if you’re saying that companies don’t want to ramp up production capacity because they think after they do and the battle in Iraq calms down they’ll be stuck with a debt on capital expenditures that they can’t make up, that makes sense.

    Prices may be going up, but the materials are available, at least until they make pennies out of steel again.

    Maybe too many manufacturers have tried to expand production facilities in China and Mexico and can’t produce a reliable product? (Just “shooting from the hip” on that one).

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  33. MD in Philly,
    Federal Cartridge Company is owned by Alliant Techsystems – which is already doing well with defense contracts.

    Winchester ammunition is still owned by Olin although the firearms business is spun off.

    PMC is a South Korean concern and makes a lot of ammo. As mentioned above, Israel Defense Industries is making a lot of ammo.

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  34. Thank you, Robin.

    But, are you sure antlered activists are involved somehow?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  35. ammo costs are going up. but mainly due to a rise in copper prices used to make the brass, use for most cases and jackets on bullets.
    Even Wolf, a low cost Russian ammo maker has had to raise the cost of ammo and most of theirs is steel cased and low copper usage.
    The other thing wrong with the story, is most all departments are now using very different ammo than the military.
    Mil usage is FMJ Ball type. Even low cost practice ammo handed out by most depts is jacketed hollow point. Walk into any WalMart and see what they have in “White Box” in 9mm .40 and .45ACP.
    I see plenty of it, as well as at discounters (Cheaper Than Dirt [which I can walk into] Sportman’s Guide), Outfitters(Cabela’s, Basspro…) and regular gun shops.
    Of course, I’m in Texas, we just might have a ton more than the rest of the U.S. for some reason.

    JP (7d78aa)

  36. MD in philly, nah, they are fully mobilized against Vick … 😉

    JP, you have a valid point about the kinds of ammo, both bullet type and caliber, but I think the argument is that manufacturing facilities are at capacity. Which they may be, but I find the story still exaggerated.

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  37. DRJ @ 31…
    As I mentioned re the contract with Israel for small-arms ammo, all of the production lines here in the states are running at close to 100% of capacity. This is what forced the DoD to go outside for additional supplies.

    The correllary to this, is that because of the limited market less the military (which is not a reliable, long term customer), no one is willing to risk capital on new facilities.

    Also, PMC has been a very large supplier to the civilian market here, but lost their US plant in Boulder City NV due to a fire/explosion, and have not (or will not) rebuild. In fact, all of the recoverable equipment was sold at auction, IIRC.

    Another Drew (466322)

  38. 1. Military rifle bullets are FMJ and mostly in 5.56 62 grain or 7.62mm 150 grain. Police rifle bullets can be hollowpoint or soft nose.

    2. Military rifle cartridge cases are annealed about the neck. Police rifle cartridge cases are polished around the neck.

    3. Police use lots of pistol rounds, most in training. Every bullet comes with its own lawyer! Military units use lots of rifle rounds, mostly in machineguns. It is completely appropriate for the Military to shoot to keep the enemy’s head down to permit maneuver to a position of advantage.

    Don Meaker (999e4b)

  39. Bullets? And not enough people either

    “WASHINGTON (AP) – Sapped by nearly six years of war, the Army has nearly exhausted its fighting force and its options if the Bush administration decides to extend the Iraq buildup beyond next spring.
    The Army’s 38 available combat units are deployed, just returning home or already tapped to go to Iraq, Afghanistan or elsewhere, leaving no fresh troops to replace five extra brigades that President Bush sent to Baghdad this year,”

    Whose fault is that? And why aren’t you guys calling for the return of the the draft?

    AF (57ec94)

  40. AF, another thread hijacking?

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  41. AF, did you read the entire article?

    You should, the AP used the Power of the JumpTM.

    Then you wouldn’t look like a sensationalistic idiot.

    Paul (f54101)

  42. AF – The only person I am aware of calling for a draft is Crazy Charlie Rangel. He has done it repeatedly and in my opinion dishonestly by deliberately disseminating false demographic information about new volunteers in the military. Hell, he has even encouraged people not to vote for his proposals because he is not serious.

    Do you support a draft AF? Do you think that is better than an all volunteer military?

    daleyrocks (906622)

  43. I’m still hoping that “…police departments raising their own practice regiments following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. ” is a typo for “regimens”.

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  44. I support mandatory public service, military or otherwise with no student deferment. If the people of this country -in the form of their elected representatives- vote to go to war, the people should be willing to get in line or they should throw the bums out.
    Democracy demands responsibility.

    AF (57ec94)

  45. So what does involuntary conscription have to do with the topic of shortage of law enforcement ammunition, AF?

    If you want to discuss the draft, there’s this thing called a blog.

    Ever heard of them?

    If you start one, you can write about whatever you want…including involuntary conscription.

    Paul (f54101)

  46. AF,

    I think we should lessen government control over our lives rather than strengthen it, but that’s not surprising given my conservative views. However, I agree that it would be a good thing if everyone had experience in military or civilian service at some point in their lives.

    DRJ (bfe07e)

  47. “I think we should lessen government control over our lives rather than strengthen it, but that’s not surprising given my conservative views.”
    If that’s the case how can you be a supporter of this administration?

    And Paul, the post concerns the question of who bears responsibility for our conduct of the war. I’m asking the same question, with different examples.

    AF (57ec94)

  48. No, it doesn’t AF. It has nothing to do with that at all. Did you not read the post? You are thread hijacking.

    Robin Roberts (6c18fd)

  49. If that’s the case how can you be a supporter of this administration?

    Because, my Chicken Little friend, Your Democrat Led Congress voted on a poorly-written bill giving the Administration powers they didn’t ask for.

    They voted on it without bothering to read it first.

    Like you did this post, which has nothing to do with anything you’ve brought up yet, AF.

    If you’re too lazy to actually read the post (and the insightful comments) don’t post comments that show us your vast ignorance.

    Paul (f54101)

  50. AF,

    You must have me confused with a Ron Paul supporter but I’m not: I don’t insist on perfect when the only choices are good, fair, or bad. In other words, I have consistently criticized Bush as to some of his actions and policies but I support the Bush Administration because there was and is no reasonable alternative.

    DRJ (bfe07e)

  51. What? Charlie Rangel wants to draft people to send them to South Korea and Israel to make bullets?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)


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