Patterico's Pontifications

6/19/2007

Inevitability?

Filed under: 2008 Election,General — Patterico @ 6:39 am

Is Hillary inevitable? I have been saying so for a while now, so let me now buck the conventional wisdom and say: don’t count out Edwards (or Obama) just yet.

It’s still early.

29 Responses to “Inevitability?”

  1. the way you wrote that, you’ll be right no matter which one of them gets it. that’s master punditry.

    i don’t think anybody is inevitable at this point. long race ahead, maybe some new runners. these runners just don’t jazz me.

    assistant devil's advocate (9b7737)

  2. Don’t count Gore out either.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  3. My understanding is that Bush is going to run again. He claims he is legally entitled to another term on the grounds that he was never really elected the first time around.
    Spokesman Tony Snowjob says that if anyone has a problem with that they can take it up with the Supreme Court. Justice Scalia says he will gladly hear the case when he comes back from a hunting trip with Dick Cheney..

    Charlie (04c679)

  4. And what else did your dog tell you?

    Sean P (484444)

  5. Even more than six months later in the election cycle of 2004, many were giving the Democratic nomination to Dean.

    nosh (de5a83)

  6. At this point in the 2004 cycle, the frontrunners were Lieberman and Gephardt.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (7d46f9)

  7. I think that if Obama or Edwards dropped early and threw their support behind the other she could lose the primaries. Failing that Obama would need a much different message with believable visions and a willingness to declare himself neither black, nor white but an American who wants to accomplish things for all Americans. I don’t think he has that speech or conviction in him though.
    In the generals I think it is the Republicans to lose. If Hillary runs against Rudy it will go badly for her. If she runs against Thompson or Romney she could pull it off if they stick too close to the themes the base is pounding away at right now.
    If Newt stepped in Hillary wins big.
    Lesser of two evils mindset with the moderate dems staying with the party.

    voiceofreason63 (cfae0f)

  8. I’m still hoping for a Kucinich/Gravel – Brownback/Tancredo race.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  9. Well Maybe we can come together after all .NY Mayor Bloomberg is entering the race. Of course, the Bushies will Swift Boat him as best they can. Sean Hannity and Michael Reagan will attack his patriotism and, under the radar, the Christian right will point out that he hates Jesus and favors infanticide. He will be portrayed as an out of touch eastern big city liberal who wants to surrender in the war on terrorism and prefers spending money on lazy middle class people trying to send their kids to college than on the latest weapon to spread democracy at the point of a gun in the middle east. Rudi and his three wifes and his current wife’s three husbands will say he is weak on family values and the NRA will start a campaign saying he is going to take away their assault rifles, motars and F-16 so necessary for hunting and self protection.
    And, of course, Bush will tell us that to elect him and settle Bush war in Iraq will mean the waste of thousands of American lives and the VP will assure us that the deadenders in Iraq are just about to give up so we must “Stay the Course”
    Big money will scream that he is conducting “class warfare” and …well you get the idea..

    Charlie (04c679)

  10. Hillary is out front, but she has greater baggage to carry. The amount of personal hostility inspired by and aimed at the Clintons is massive–probably greater than that inspired by any modern president before Clinton. (And the hostility inspired by and aimed at George W Bush is at least in part a reflex/reaction to that.) Does anyone actually want to go through that again? If Hillary were to get elected, who doubts that at least some portions of the vast rightwing conspiracy* would be in full cry by the end of November 2008? If I were Obama or Edwards I would keep dropping hints about that, just to remind people of all the baggage. And Democrats shift their focus to someone who doesn’t carry all that baggage, Hillary will lose ground.

    But at this point, I think it is too early to tell who will be the nominees, much less the winner in November 2008. All I know is that as of now I don’t see any major party candidate whom I could support. All of them believe that the more government, the better. (Except Ron Paul, I suppose.)

    kishnevi (39df56)

  11. Bloomberg is a Democrat who switched parties when he couldn’t win the Democrat primary in NYC. I find it amazing that someone can say that folks will “Swiftboat” him (I guess this means “Borked” in leftist cant, no matter how well deserved it was), but then turns around and talks about Rudi’s marriages.

    Considering who’s favoring him, yeah you bet we’ll paint Bloomberg as a crazy leftist loon. But wait … we can just stand back and let you do it yourself.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  12. Bloomberg: an Indie run will just drain votes from the Dems – Perot in reverse.
    Edwards: a confirmation that the Dems are committed to a path of destruction – their own.
    Ron Paul: He couldn’t get the Libertarian nom – how is he going to get the GOP?
    Kucinich/Gravel v Brownbeck/Tancredo: someone needs to get back on their meds.
    Gore: his candidacy leaves one breathless – you laugh for five minutes, and you’ll be breathless too.
    Charlie’s dog: a new, bright comedic talent just waiting to be discovered.

    Another Drew (8018ee)

  13. Used as a verb, is bork considered a pejorative term as Swiftboat has become?

    aunursa (4f2f6b)

  14. Obama will become Hillary’s VP. For Hillary, it help her appeal across her base and also with moderates who have fallen for the Mr. Feelgood job the Media has done for Obama.

    Even a failed run for VP will give Obama the air of experience or credentials for the next election cycle in 2012.

    If he actually gets to be VP, whether one term or two he’ll be in excellent position to run in 2016. Which, for Obama’s age is still quite doable.

    Basically being Hillary’s VP today increases his chance of success in the future. Assuming the Media Glow doesn’t wear off.

    jpm100 (a99bf7)

  15. To Bork someone is to spread patent and provable untruths about a candidate as widely as possible, expecting that few will pay attention to the facts.

    To Swiftboat is when people _who were there_ contradict the self-aggrandizing claims of an empty-suit candidate.

    Both are used as pegoratives, one justly.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  16. Even a failed run for VP will give Obama the air of experience or credentials for the next election cycle in 2012.

    Man, I don’t know. Can you point out any modern instances where a failed VP candidate has later been elected president? FDR is the only one I can think of, and he had to be elected governor of NY after losing on the Cox ticket before he became a viable presidential candidate.

    Even winning VP candidates have had a poor record being elected to the top spot: only Nixon and GHW Bush have done it without having first ascended to the position through the death of the president since Martin Van Buren.

    If Hillary wins the nomination, I think Obama is better off respectfully declining any invitation to join the ticket. I kind of doubt Hillary would want a potential rival in the number two spot anyway, especially one who may have more star power than she does. I am guessing Bill Richardson would be more her speed. Obama can wait until 2012, or even until 2024 when he will only be about as old (63) as Hillary will be in 2008.

    JVW (b44a2c)

  17. Kevin if you want to paint Bloomberg as a leftist loony that is ok as long as you also paint G Bush honestly for what his his.. a liar, a stupid ignorant man who has undermined the Constitution, is responsible for more deaths than any terrorist on the planet, a man who has undermined our security, who engages in kidnappings and murder, illegal detention and wars. A man who is nothing but a brain dead drug addict good only for photo ops and empty platitudes about “protectin yer family” and “safegardin yer freedom”.
    Bush is worse, yes much worse, a threat to the US than Sadam Hussein and OBL ever were. OBL might destroy buildings but Bush has destroyed our souls.
    And Kevin if you care to check the facts, the facts presented by the Swift Boat liars were false. Can explain how the men making the charges against Kerry were offering totally different statements from the ones they made back in the 60s in Vietnam and different from what the military said at the time? Of course not but that doesnt matter does it? Long as the smear takes hold.

    And where was Bush during Vietnam?? AWOL and from his cushy duty in the guard most likely spending time in a cocaine rehab facility.

    I am a Vietnam Era vet and let me tell all vets that Bush doesn’t give a damn about Vets. They are just cannon fodder for his failed attempt at glory.

    As far as Rudi’s marriages are concerned they is a legitimate topic of discussion as many Evangelicals are pointing out. He jumps up and down at the Republican Convention cheering the Defense of Marriage act all the time cheating on his wife! You see no contradiction here? Or better still you find if perfectly reasonable to hold as true two contradictory ideas in your head at the same time..
    This, of course. is the same Rudy that is says knowing what he knows today he would still attack Iraq! ( actually he, personally, would not attack, he would send others while hiding in a bombproof shelter himself)

    Democrats are gutless but Republicans are reprehensible with their hippocricy and deceit. They and Bush are the greatest threat to world peace and democracy that has ever existed in this country. If you like fascism go ahead and elect them again. They will not protect you one bit against the rise of Islamic radicalism because they themselves are just the reverse side of the same hateful coin. But you dont see that, do you? Too busy waving the flag?

    I will vote for Bloomberg if he runs unless I suspect that will mean the Republican fascists will win in which case I will vote for any ANY democrat including Hillery, Obama and even Howard Stern.

    Charlie (04c679)

  18. IF you really a Vietnam vet and not a lying Moonbat, I find your choice of names used here ironic-CHARLIE.

    Hard Right (7900e3)

  19. Andrew,

    That is a strange post, isn’t it?

    DRJ (2d5e62)

  20. Charlie,

    I think you’d know what AWOL means if you were actually a vet. You realize Dan Rather’s documents were fake, right?

    And if by “swiftboating” you mean “calling someone on lies about his record”, then yeah, he’ll be swiftboated.

    Which brings is to your claims about being a Viet Nam vet. What unit did you serve with? Where? And what was your MOS?

    Eric (09e4ab)

  21. Eric,

    I suspect that you won’t get an answer from Charlie

    Labcatcher (02229b)

  22. BTW, there is a fairly recent example of someone mounting an attempt to become VP, failing to get the nomination, and then becoming the Pres nominee at the next election cycle, and winning the Presidency:
    JFK,
    1956 (lost to Kefauver on a convention floor vote); &,
    1960 (defeated Nixon in what was at that time the closest electoral contest for President – decided by less than one vote per precinct nation-wide).

    Another Drew (4d2fc0)

  23. More on Althouse’s brilliant discovery of Hillary’s encoded agenda.

    I do so wish that I could get my weight and cholesterol back to onion-ring-eating zones.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (36af38)

  24. OK HARD RIGHT LABCATCHER AND ERIC.
    I said Vietnam ERA Vet. “ERA” GET IT??. I served in the USAF in the Phillipine Islands from about 1969-1972 at Clark AFB. I was an Information Specialist so I saw things first hand.

    I was there when Marcos took over complete power I believe in 70 or 71. Dont remember exactly. He was just like Bush and, just like Bush until recently, had a compliant congress filled with his supporters and if you didnt like what he did you could take it up with the PI Supreme Court…also filled with his cronyies.

    One day he simply decided he wanted to get rid of even the small opposition he had and so took complete control. He said it was “temporary”.

    ..The reason: Muslim Bombings and his so called desire to “protect the people”. Sound familiar? Each night you could see his TV Station which I believe was DZBB IN Manila sign off with the words “Wishing you a peaceful evening in the New Society”

    Dont say it cant happen here.

    Ok now do you believe I am what and who I say I am? And believe me there are plenty of Vietnam vets and Vietnam ERA vets who feel as I do because we have seen all this before and I dont want a repeat of it.

    Charlie (04c679)

  25. ok one more thing.. Hillery is a flip flopper to the highest degree..just like Bush.. Got to be some good candidates somewhere but the problem is they need money.. MONEY is what makes this hollowed out democracy run..or should I say “hobble along”

    Charlie (04c679)

  26. To revert to the original subject of your post: Edwards will never obtain the nomination. The reason? The $400 haircut. That did it.

    miriam (20cd38)

  27. Ya miriam.. ok to start a war for reasons proven false, ok to stir up worldwide Islamic extremism, ok to sit on your ass when illegals cross the boarder, ok to appoint cronyies that cannot handle disasters, ok to corrupt the legal system, ok to disregard the Constitution and the laws of the land, ok to out secret agents for political purposes, ok to run up the national debt while continuing to give tax breaks to the poor rich folks.. BUT GOD FORBID YOU BLOW YOUR MONEY ON A HIGH PRICED HAIRCUT..we cant tolerate that!

    Charlie (04c679)

  28. I am furious over the illegal immigration issue. My first priority in a candidate will be one who is ready to enforce immigration laws already on the books.

    I have been an victim of illegal immigrants crime. Three boys broke into and stole my daughter’s car from where she worked. They broke in and hot wired it. There was a thirteen year old and two eleven year olds. Who the hell knows how to hotwire a car at eleven???

    Irregardless, I am sick and tired of them flaunting American law. I am tired of the added taxes to take care of them and I want the borders closed. I do not care if they are from Ireland, Mexico, Timbucktoo, etc. they should be deported.

    W.Martin (67d972)


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