Confirmation Bias: The Real Problem with the U.S. Attorney “Scandal”
The Bush Administration’s nefarious plan to unravel the prosecution of Dusty Foggo and Brent Wilkes is finally bearing fruit:
Kyle Dusty Foggo and Brent Wilkes head to federal court today where they will likely plead not guilty to new conspiracy and money laundering charges.
Indictments against the pair came Friday that expand the charges filed against them in February.
In addition to the old charges, in the new indictment, Foggo, former executive director of the CIA, is accused of slipping his lifelong friend, Wilkes, a $132 million federal contract to provide commercial cover for CIA air operations.
See? All Bush had to do was replace the prosecutor, and the case went down the tubes . . .
Oh. Wait, I’m confused: if there are new charges, doesn’t that sound like . . . they are being prosecuted with zeal and diligence? B-b-b-but I thought Carol Lam’s replacement was supposed to make that prosecution go away??
But you won’t find a word about the U.S. Attorney’s scandal in the TPMmuckraker entry on the new Foggo and Wilkes charges. It doesn’t fit the storyline, you see.
And that’s what bugs me about this whole scandal. It’s something researchers call “confirmation bias.” When something comes along that confirms your preconceived view — such as the recent (and admittedly suspicious-sounding) revelation that David Yglesias’s name was added to the list on Election Day — you just pile it on the mound of evidence. But when something comes along that flies directly in the face of your preconceived notion — like the new Wilkes and Foggo charges — you note the evidence, but don’t ask how it affects your theory . . . because the answer is inconvenient.
Confirmation bias. It’s the main problem with this whole scandal.
I would go further than “because the answer is inconvenient” and say because the answer is irrelevant.
TB (c4562d) — 5/15/2007 @ 5:44 am“Confirmation bias.” You make me laugh.
And Gonzalez’ lies to Contress. And Monica Goodling
And “the secret order signed by Alberto Gonzales in March of last year that gave Kyle Sampson and Monica Goodling, two young aides with close ties to the White House, the power to hire and fire junior political appointees at the Justice Department.”
AF (683024) — 5/15/2007 @ 6:00 amYou can read it yourself now.
There’s may be a difference among the priorities of democratic and republican administrations regarding prosecutorial discretion that this is well beyond that.
Just go to Muckraker and scroll your way down the page.
And don’t forget to read up on Bradley Schlozman.
Keep trying
Yeah, but they would have been prosecuted much harder but for the Carol Lam firing – I’m positive that you’ll find Foggo eats babies for breakfast, and that Wilkes is actually a snake worshipping devil-fiend, and this Administration has covered up for them. At the heart of it, you’ll surely find that somebody who attended Regent Law, Liberty Baptist for undergrad, or maybe Boston College, Notre Dame, Fordham, Marquette, Loyola, Our Lady of Perpetual Sorrows Elementary School or some other fly by night Christer religious school had something to do with these charges being delayed.
Ahh, yes, that’s it. The Carol Lam firing got these charges delayed, for political purposes That’s the ticket. BTW, have you met my wife… Morgan Fairchild…
Al Maviva (89d0b6) — 5/15/2007 @ 6:50 amComey’s up today at the SJC.
AF (683024) — 5/15/2007 @ 7:48 amI had a longer post responding to the absurdity above but it
seems never to make it to the page.
I tried.
The rush to Ashcroft’s bedside. Hilarious.
AF (683024) — 5/15/2007 @ 8:33 amPatterico, you talk about confirmation bias as if you are immune. In fact you often come across as an advocate for the Bush administration rather than a dispassionate observer.
As to the particular point about Lam it seems pretty obvious that the Bush administration did not intend for the USA firings to play out the way they have so this says little about what they were trying to do. What do you think the firings were intended to accomplish?
James B. Shearer (fc887e) — 5/15/2007 @ 10:34 amThere is also the notion of “Hindsight Bias.” Things that look clear as mud now will seem obvious in hindsight. This is a big problem in malpractice cases.
DaSarge (758ab4) — 5/15/2007 @ 11:05 amFoggo and Wilkes were toast, especially once high-price women got mixed in. Now we can speculate who else would be in trouble (e.g., Rep. Jerry Lewis R-CA) if not for the convenient change in staff.
Andrew J. Lazarus (7d46f9) — 5/15/2007 @ 11:17 amPatterico, your point about these charges is a fair one and one TPM should address.
I’m guessing the TPM reply would be that if the Bush admin had gotten their druthers they would have buried these cases. It’s just all the publicity brought by the noble, hard-working folks at TPM that foiled their plans and forced them to take a hard line.
Sure “confirmation bias” is an issue, here or pretty much in any instance that a human being with a point of view identifies a pattern. I think it’s quite a stretch to claim it as the grand unifying theme that explains the U.S. Attorney Scandal though.
Crust (399898) — 5/15/2007 @ 11:25 amAndrew:
Now we can speculate who else would be in trouble (e.g., Rep. Jerry Lewis R-CA) if not for the convenient change in staff.
Andrew, note that the Lewis investigation wouldn’t be effected by the Lam firing (though it may have effected by Yang’s resignation).
Crust (399898) — 5/15/2007 @ 11:28 amThanks AF for repeating year old stuff as if it was hot off the presses (or freshly leaked).
kyle (9d9e73) — 5/15/2007 @ 2:35 pmNow can you cut and paste something new for us to read?
Well, there you have it. Surely Rove must be innocent of any baseless charges.
The emails just prove incompetence, nothing else.
If only Al Capone had paid some income tax.
Semanticleo (710d38) — 5/15/2007 @ 2:36 pmJames:
I’d say, offhand, they were intended to accomplish the firing of the attorneys. The political appointees that got ‘un-appointed’ so to speak.
Lord Nazh (62fa3b) — 5/15/2007 @ 3:37 pm12
That the best defense you can come up with?
James B. Shearer (fc887e) — 5/15/2007 @ 4:52 pmOne of the leitmotivs of the Overblown Personnel Matter is the incompentence involved, generally localized in Alberto Gonzalez himself, but not confined to his person. So it blends with the general level of incompetence to find that the purpose of the firings did not achieve their purpose (if the purpose of the firings was to sidetrack these investigations).
Or simple delay may have been sufficient for the purposes of Rove et al–delay beyond the election, etc.
Or the replacement US Atty may not have gotten the memo and gone ahead with the investigations.
Your explanation is merely one of several possibilities. The fact that it seems the most reasonable to you is merely a reflection of your own biases.
kishnevi (03a14b) — 5/15/2007 @ 5:35 pmkyle, it’s was about an hour old when I posted it. I watched it myself on the teevee (or the computer with realplayer)
Here’s the timeline.
As John McKay said “I think there will be a criminal case that will come out of this…
This is going to get worse, not better.”
Monica Goodling
AF (683024) — 5/15/2007 @ 6:04 pmWouldn’t it be confirmation bias only if they didnt post the story?
TPM was on the Dusty Foggo-Brent Wilkes story long before the DOJ sewer was opened.
alphie (015011) — 5/15/2007 @ 7:58 pmI can’t take these ‘scandals’ seriously anymore, this card has been over-played too many times with too much resulting bullshit for me to bother believing in anything anyone from the Democrat Party has to say; even Joe Liebermann is losing my confidence.
Just to get Bush, Democrats have blown all that is left of their party.
syn (7faf4d) — 5/16/2007 @ 4:27 amin re: “I can’t take these ’scandals’ seriously anymore,”
AF (683024) — 5/16/2007 @ 5:12 amin re: “I can’t take these ’scandals’ seriously anymore,”
AF (683024) — 5/16/2007 @ 5:12 amsyn writes:
OK, what about what Republicans have to say? E.g. Tom Tancredo said ‘he didn’t think immigration cases had “a single thing to do with” the firings…
So if Tancredo doesn’t believe the official story as to why Lam was fired does that make it worth paying attention? Not that Tancredo is in any way unique. Plenty of Republicans have called for Gonzales to resign or made noises in that direction.
Crust (399898) — 5/16/2007 @ 6:32 amsyn, in case you’re not a Tancredo fan, here’s TPM’s GOP Gonzales Resignation Roll Call. (Their headline is a little misleading. Some, e.g. Senators Coburn and Sununu, did call for AGAG to resign or be fired. Others on the list stopped just short of saying that e.g. Senator Sessions saying “it might just be best” if AGAG weren’t there.)
Crust (399898) — 5/16/2007 @ 6:43 amyour list it out of date, crust. chuck hagel just came on board.
assistant devil's advocate (d7b695) — 5/16/2007 @ 10:45 ami hope gonzalez stays. i want this to continue until the next election. it’s like having your adversary handcuffed to a corpse.
Confirmation Bias. Or as cognitive psychologists say, “perceptual readiness.” We read things as we expect to read them. We interpret stimuli as we would prefer to interpret them.
Damn, I completely dismissed the favorable interpretation that Andy Card and Alberto Gonzo were rushing to the hospital to give flowers to Ashcroft before they wilted. And they just wanted him to sign the card. Silly me.
nosh (de5a83) — 5/17/2007 @ 8:58 pmCrust
The attempt to scandalize every aspect of the Bush Administration is rather a waste of time. Do you not see that the only difference between Bush and the Democrat Party is Bush supports the troops.
Keep scandalizing Bush, you are going after one of your own.
syn (7faf4d) — 5/18/2007 @ 3:48 amSUPPORT THE TROOPS
AF (683024) — 5/18/2007 @ 5:40 amWhat AF is leaving out is that the white house full endorses a 3% pay increase, and would like the 40 bucks added, but would rather that it not come out of the Military Retirement Fund.
Also, the Libs seems to skip over the following:
So give them 40 bucks (which they should simply ADD to the existing annuity, not create a new and seperate one), but don’t give free healthcare to the widows…
Yeah, you folks aren’t treying to lie and obfuscate your way through this… Not at all.
This rings of when Dems want a 10% increase (or whatever) and the repubs want a 7% increase, and the Dems cry that Repubs wants to cut by three percent…
Tell the WHOLE story AF. The WHOLE story…
Scott Jacobs (feb2f7) — 5/18/2007 @ 6:06 amSo when AF says the Administration opposes
He’s lying.
I know, I know… You’re shocked. I am too folks… I mean, AF? What’s the world coming too…
Scott Jacobs (feb2f7) — 5/18/2007 @ 6:08 amScott-
“Refusal by lawmakers to approve Tricare fees [more money out of pocket by soldiers] for beneficiaries, something administration officials view as an important step in holding down health care cost, also drew opposition, along with a provision imposing price controls on prescription drugs* dispensed to Tricare users.”
*”The Administration believes market competition is the most effective way to promote discounts in the community setting.”
Read the statements by the administration
And read The Army Times
AF (683024) — 5/18/2007 @ 10:00 amScott, you are an idiot.