Patterico's Pontifications

5/4/2006

Going for It on Fourth Down

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:57 pm



Kevin Drum has an interesting post that analyzes the critical issue of when football coaches should go for it on fourth down. The conclusion: coaches are generally much too conservative. I think that’s right.

8 Responses to “Going for It on Fourth Down”

  1. I agree that most coaches are conservative about 4th downs but that’s usually because they’ve been burned or seen others get burned. Plus it’s hard to know how your personnel will handle a 4th down situation if you don’t try it often.

    But just as coaches are reluctant to go for it on 4th down, it’s my belief that they are even more reluctant to loosen up the kicking game. We rarely see the pooch kick, onside kick (except at the end of the game), quick kick or punt on 3rd down, even though it’s arguably easier to prepare the kicking squad for specialty situations.

    Did I mention I love football?

    DRJ (3c8cd6)

  2. During the BCS championship game I think USC tried two 4th down conversions and failed on both of them. Didn’t the last one lead to Texas’ game winning drive?

    Stu707 (18fdc8)

  3. USC was 1 of 3 on 4th down conversions while Texas was 1 of 2. The game winning score came at 14:41 in the 4th quarter when Vince Young scored on a 4th and 5 from the 8 yard line.

    DRJ (3c8cd6)

  4. And you are correct, Stu707, that USC failed to convert a 4th down at the end of the game. Texas stopped LenDale White at midfield on a 4th and 2 with 2:09 left in the game. Strangely enough, USC did not put Bush in the game for that play – either to run the ball or as a decoy. If I were a USC fan, I would view that as the most agonizing moment/decision of the game (closely followed by Reggie’s lateral).

    DRJ (3c8cd6)

  5. As a USC fan I agree that keeping Bush on the sideline on the 4th down conversion attempt was a greivous error.

    Stu707 (18fdc8)

  6. Gregg Easterbrook has made this argument for years in his football column, Tuesday Morning Quarterback. Here’s one outstanding example: Manly Men Don’t Punt.

    Paul (c169e9)

  7. I read about this issue a few months ago in “The Undercover Economist” by Tim Harford.

    CliveStaples (5a9db4)

  8. i believe that onside kicks should be attempted at any point during a game, not just at the end when the kicking team absolutely has to recover the ball in order to win, so everybody knows what they’re gonna do. even then, it seems to work about a third of the time, i’m wondering what the success percentage would be doing this on opening kickoffs. there would also be a psychological blow to the other team if you can recover possession in the first couple of seconds.
    now that usc’s professional back reggie bush has been retroactively disqualified, i’m also wondering if we can go back to the ucla-usc game, declare ucla the winner, and since they didn’t get the opportunity to play texas for the title, declare ucla and texas national co-champions.

    assistant devil's advocate (73d3c1)


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