Patterico's Pontifications

10/27/2004

Who Will Win?

Filed under: 2004 Election — Patterico @ 6:17 am

So who’s gonna win? Well, there are contrary indicators out there.

Alert reader Hank K. points me to an analysis that takes account of the phenomenon that undecideds usually break against the incumbent. When this principle is factored in to the poll analyses, a huge win for Kerry does not sound implausible. I’m talking 311-227 in the electoral college.

Thank you for passing along that particular depressing bit of prognostication, Hank K.

On the bright side, the L.A. Times seems to be concerned about a Bush win, as evidenced by their front-page story titled Signs of Voter Fraud Appear in Key States. The first and last examples presented in the story are suggestive of pro-Republican fraud — natch. You can call it an insurance policy, but clearly the paper is at least concerned about a possible Republican victory, and is helping to lay the groundwork for the Democrat legal challenges.


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