10/2/2004

17 Responses to “Bush is Toast – I’m depressed”

1. It’s a Newsweek Poll for Pete’s sake. Don’t get your undies in bunch.

   sam (6bedf7) — 10/2/2004 @ 7:20 pm

   
   

2. Little Green Footballs shows the following:

   Republicans vs. Democrats in Newsweek’s
   September 11, 2004 poll:

   391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
   300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
   270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

   Newsweek’s “evaporated lead” post-debate poll:

   345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
   364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
   278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

   arb (5e5932) — 10/2/2004 @ 7:32 pm

   
   

3. Goodness…I never thought I’d see a posting like this on Patterico’s Pontifications! Don’t worry so much, man…I’m a liberal Democrat, and I’m at least as worried as you are, but about the elections getting suspended or something instead.

   As for the polls, I’ll believe what they say on November 3rd, and not bloody well until. Relax!

   Tom (4a3c50) — 10/2/2004 @ 8:05 pm

   
   

4. Wow…giving up so soon? W’s bounce evaporates
   and you whine??..Let me get this straight..the race is a statistical dead heat and youre depressed? CHIN UP.There are two more debates, and quite frankly, I believe very few people
   are going to change the way they vote based on
   a debate.P.S. republicans are disciplined enough
   to win if we have stamina.

   eric the white (71d997) — 10/2/2004 @ 8:43 pm

   
   

5. Don’t let these naysayers sway you. Your fears are legitimate. As I’ve taught my children, nowhere is it written that a United States must exist. Like every other nation, it, too, shall fall on its appointed day.

   Doubtless, there has been a pivotal moment for every failed state. Perhaps for Rome it arrived when the citizen soldier was no longer at the heart of its armies, indeed, no longer existed. When so many men lopped off their own thumbs to avoid Rome’s military service that laws were passed to punish the act, Rome’s day was clearly past.

   For the Mongol, perhaps it arrived when those hearty plainsmen surrendered to the luxury of their spoils.

   For America, perhaps the moment will arrive when its people choose to prosecute a war for survival with a leader who believes there is no war.

   For all, though, the moment has a salient feature… that is when a people surrenders the character of their fathers.

   When a friendly Kuwait was overrun, America’s senators could barely raise a majority in favor of aiding them. (Kerry did not)

   When America, itself, was attacked, she could find but a handful of allies to join her in Afghanistan. She fought on in the face of furious
   dissension both abroad and at home. Indeed, America fought its own ‘loyal opposition’ both at home and abroad. How many successful nations can one recall whose leaders or people cared more for the approbation of foreign peoples and leaders than their own?

   Perhaps history will note that America’s pivotal moment began with a long retreat from a place once called Iraq. But that will only explain the how and the when, not the why.

   Thomas Hazlewood (8c22f4) — 10/2/2004 @ 9:01 pm

   
   

6. http://www.dinocrat.com/archives/2004/10/02/a-promise-fulfilled-by-evan-thomas/

   A Promise Fulfilled by Evan Thomas: Newsweek’s Uses Pathetically Fraudulent Polling to Boost Kerry by 15 Points and Create the “Kerry Comeback”
   — Jack Risko

   Newsweek editor Evan Thomas promised Kerry a boost of 15 points,in his election bid against George Bush and so far Mr. Thomas is doing a good job of delivering as the campaign reaches the home stretch. Four weeks ago, we reported in this space the Newsweek poll that had Bush up 52% to 41%. Today, the Newsweek poll among registered voters has it 46% for Bush, 49% for Kerry. So in the last month, Mr Thomas’s man is up 8%, and the President is down 6%, so Newsweek has so far delivered on getting John Kerry a 14 point swing – almost home!

   We noted a couple of days after reporting last month’s poll that the big Bush lead of 11% among registered voters was not obtained honestly, but by manipulating the poll sample by oversampling Republicans, in order to subsequently report a Kerry comeback. That is precisely what has happened.

   Newsweek cooked the books in its fraudulent poll a month ago, and we have no reason to believe that it is not cooking its results again, both to sell magazines and to boost its favored candidate. It is no coincidence that the poll numbers are released just in time for the Sunday yak-fests.

   If you subscribe to Newsweek, this would be a perfectly appropriate moment to stop doing so, unless of course you like being manipulated by newsmen with an aggressive and dishonest agenda. Oh, you thought Dan Rather was the only egregious one?

   One look at this Beldar post should cure you of that misguided notion.

   The Methodology of Creating a Fraudulent Poll

   From LGF and lots of other places we have a breakdown of Dems and Reps in the two polls, and talk about a pathetic forgery: these polls make Bill Burkett look like Rembrandt or Picasso. Take a gander from LGF:

   September 11, 2004: NEWSWEEK POLL

   391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
   300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
   270 Independents (plus or minus 7)

   NEWSWEEK POLL: First Presidential Debate

   345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
   364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
   278 Independents (plus or minus 7)

   You don’t need an 800 on the SAT or a degree in statistics to follow what Newsweek did to cook up these fake results. In the most recent poll, R’s go 89% for Bush, D’s go 86% Kerry (with I’s splitting 37/42 R/D, or about even). Follow me: the whole result of the poll is dictated by how many Republicans and Democrats you include in your sample – that’s it, that’s the ball game.

   In the first poll, 57% of the sample was Republican versus Democrat, so Bush won big. In the second poll 51% of the sample was Democrats versus Republicans, So Kerry won narrowly. This is a poor joke, rank hucksterism, patent medicine from the back of a wagon. Newsweek is playing the readers of Newsweek for fools.

   Newsweek is committing no crime in hawking these phony polls, since they are forging nothing. However, if you believe them, you are guilty of imbecility: you are too dumb to breathe.

   jack risko (855376) — 10/2/2004 @ 10:33 pm

   
   

7. Kerry may well win but there are 30 days left dude.

   Look at the underlying data of the polls. Furthermore, keep in mind that historically, in their first debate together Mondale absolutely trounced Reagan in 1984, and Democrats (such as myself) were in high heaven.

   Furthermore, the world doesn’t end if Kerry is elected. He still has a Congress to deal with, same as Bush does. It’s not like we’re electing an Emperor.

   Dean Esmay (5e567f) — 10/3/2004 @ 2:24 am

   
   

8. Part of the Roman army’s problem, of course, was the twenty year term of service.

   It wasn’t like enlisting in the American military, that’s for sure.

   The actual moment the Empire slipped into decline was, in my opinion, during the reigns of Hadrian and Antoninus Pius.

   Hadrian ceased the expansion of the Empire, shifting the frontiers into a defensive posture (of course, even this would not be so bad had there been no disaster in the Teutoberg Forest- if the borders had been at the Elbe River rather than the Rhine, there would have been much less coastline to protect).

   It is in the reign of Antoninus Pius that artistic and intellectual decline began to set in. For a really dramatic illustration, compare the sculptures on the Column of Trajan with those on the Column of Marcus Aurelius.

   Less than a century separates these two, and much of the skill from Trajan’s time is lacking by that of Marcus Aurelius.

   The Angry Clam (c96486) — 10/3/2004 @ 6:36 am

   
   

9. the Boston Sunday Globe went back to their carefully put together 10 person focus group in Ohio and found that the debate changed not one person’s vote. They said Kerry might want to ease up on the gloating.

   p (485db3) — 10/3/2004 @ 7:15 am

   
   

10. I have a feeling that Bush is setting Kerry and the mainstream media up.

    themarkman (b49d9c) — 10/3/2004 @ 8:07 am

    
    

11. Shame on you. I have no problem listing all we face to lose – life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness covers it for me. But to whine, rather than stiffen one’s spine for the fight ahead. While I applaud realistic examination, I deplore defeatist pessimism.

    MaDr (08c688) — 10/3/2004 @ 10:46 am

    
    

12. Wow one poll and you lanch yourself lemming like over the cliff? Have you seen Rassmussen’s daily tracking polls? Here is a link:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

    Note two days after the debate Bush is back to where he was on Sept 29th. Tomorrow by 11 am you will be able to see the results of the Rasmussen polls on an all post debate basis ( Rasmussen uses a a rolling three day average to increase the sample size thereby decreasing the margin of error and smoothing out any one day polling spikes. But with two thirds of the sample already post debate I see no evidence that Kerry got any bounce [b]what so ever [/b].

    Now the wisdom is that the next debates are on friendly turf for Kerry. Domestic policy. Now call me a dummy but homeland security and tax cuts are both parts of domestic poicy correct? But Kerry has a health care plan that will trump both????

    One last point. Anyone seen any reason to believe that going antiwar wins Fla or Ohio? If not then Kerry is toast anyway. He has no route to 270 electoral votes.

    If you must piss your pants try not to do it in such a public way. We are embarrassed for you.

    Gary Maxwell (04c6d0) — 10/3/2004 @ 11:08 am

    
    

13. More Mainstream Media Kerry Boosterism
    A giddy Newsweek has triumphantly declared that President Bush’s lead has evaporated. After big media nearly swung the Presidency in driving down Republican polling by calling the 2000 election for Gore before the polls closed, I wonder if Republicans …

    Calblog (2fb2f0) — 10/3/2004 @ 6:39 pm

    
    

14. More Mainstream Media Kerry Boosterism
    A giddy Newsweek has triumphantly declared that President Bush’s lead has evaporated. After big media nearly swung the Presidency in driving down Republican polling by calling the 2000 election for Gore before the polls closed, I wonder if Republicans …

    Calblog (2fb2f0) — 10/3/2004 @ 9:47 pm

    
    

15. More Mainstream Media Kerry Boosterism
    A giddy Newsweek has triumphantly declared that President Bush’s lead has evaporated. After big media nearly swung the Presidency in driving down Republican polling by calling the 2000 election for Gore before the polls closed, I wonder if Republicans …

    Calblog (2fb2f0) — 10/3/2004 @ 10:20 pm

    
    

16. Jana Kova
    Hi,
    thanks for your great posts – I really like your site… keep up your great work. Warm greeting from Prague, Jana.

    Jana Kova, Prague (5ccee8) — 11/2/2004 @ 3:34 pm

    
    

17. Zdenka Podkapova
    Hi, I like your site – it is kind cool… and I like your style. thanks and greetings from Slovakia, Zdenka

    Zdenka Podkapova, Slovakia (5e0295) — 11/21/2004 @ 8:18 am